The Odds
Heard on a McDonalds commercial:
Odds of your girl band getting famous by posting songs on YouTube: One zillion to one.
My immediate response:
Odds of becoming a famous author by only publishing e-books: One zillion to one.
Jim Carrey in the movie “Dumb & Dumber”:
“…So you’re sayin’ there’s a chance.”
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My Twitter name is @RachelleGardner.
My passion is partnering with authors to bring worthwhile books to publication. I started this blog as a way to create a community of writers, both published and seeking publication. I write about a wide variety of topics of interest to writers, and I consider the reader comments even more important than my own posts.
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At least there IS a chance, however slim it may be. =P Famous no, make some form of passive income maybe.
I always think of Han Solo yelling “Never tell me the odds!” as he maneuvers through the asteroid belt.
Good point, Christine!
One chance is all you need, no? What would you do with more than one? They aren’t like shoes, which you can happily accumulate!
If you give up, then the possibility of being published is zero.
If you keep on working at it, one step at a time–who knows?
Exactly! You can’t win if you don’t play.
And it’s not as random as a lottery, skill with words and skill with marketing up your chances.
Gotta agree with you on this one Rachelle!
That’s my favorite Jim Carrey quote, Rachelle! There’s always hope! We just have to be willing to look at things differently when things start looking impossible.
Here’s to the power of positive thinking. Along with sweat and toil.
I wasn’t going the e-book route anyway.
“Fame is a vapor; popularity an accident; the only earthly certainty is oblivion.” – Mark Twain
Fame is overrated. What counts in writing, IMO, is turning out books that please a readership that grows because you are . . . turning out books that please a readership. That can be done and done faster in the e-book world, but the same dynamic holds for print. It’s the only dynamic that works over the long term.
People who e-pub one book and expect to rocket to fame or fortune are fooling themselves. E-pubbing is a volume business. Patience, professionalism, consistency required.
And remember, if you’re ever in a hole, just dig yourself out. (h/t Lloyd Christmas)
Just what I was going to say. Fame isn’t really the point. Writing books that mean something to the people that read them, that’s the point.
I love those odds!! LOL
NOT half empty…but the glass is half full, right?!?!
THIS was perfect. I am rolling on the floor laughing.
That Lloyd punchline…that was perfect.
That just made my day.
One chance is better than none.
The Dumb & Dumber quote – love it.
Brilliant.
I agree with James. A slow steady rise to fame would be ideal. Most rockets to fame, like shooting stars, burn themselves out…i’m in it for the long haul. Guess thats why my first self-pub is book one of a trilogy.
Very negative post. How about a little encouragement for us published authors? Actually, Youtube is a way to get publicity for your book– I’ve gotten over 1000 new subscribers that way– and it didn’t cost me a cent. Justin Bieber got discovered by posting his amateur videos on youtube. He got signed up with an agent in Atlanta, and he is orginally from Canada. So you can’t say it doesn’t happen. I’d like to see some more encouragement rather than sarcasm, pessism, and “don’t-even-try-your-chances-are-a -billion-to-one.” Come on, now! What a shame this is posted by a literary agent.
Rachel isn’t pointing out that it’s impossible. It’s clear that some have succeeded, some who are exceptions to the rule. Just as Justin Bieber was a sort of an exception to the rule that girl bands rarely get famous from youtube, there are a few exceptions to the rule of self publishers. Every once in a while, an ebook writer and self publisher will write an incredibly dynamic book and has both the resources and connections they need to hit it big. But without an established audience (think blog), publicity (think major advertising, book signings, and other events), connections to make it on book lists and get influential reviews, and resources to produce enough to meet such demand, self publishers usually cannot turn enough profit to even support their family. The mildly successful self publishers I know have all of those, and even they know realistically they will never actually gain fame. Just recognition in a small way. For many, though, that is enough.
*Rachelle… sorry!
Aw, can’t a girl have a sense of humor every once in awhile?
Hey, I’m a self-pub and I found the post funny! If you have read any of Rachelle’s posts, she is very positive, upbeat, and nothing but encouraging which is the reason I started following her Blog.
Allow the Lord to direct your steps and focus on the positive…nothing will phase you! SMILE
T Denise Clary
C’mon sistah, where’s the love?
One of my favorite scenes in the film, “Julia,” is about writers and writing … and newfound fame.
Lillian Hellman (played by Jane Fonda) muses whether she should buy a mink coat on the proceeds from her first play.
Dashiell Hammett (played by Jason Robards, Jr.) tells her to buy it or not buy it…but that it doesn’t have anything to do with writing.
Of course, there’s always that teeny chance out there… but it’s still teeny. But that’s okay. I’m not doing this for the money anyway.
If you give up, the odds are zero.
I completely agree. No matter how popular e-books become, people like to hold something tangible. Books have sensation — feel, sight, even smell. E-books are convenient, but until the printing business shuts down completely, we all will enjoy browsing through a bookstore or a library.
Hi Rachelle,
With the utmost respect (and I’m not being sarcastic, I have greatest respect for you) there are a lot of self-published authors who are doing extremely well. They just don’t broadcast this fact.
Take Theresa Regan, http://www.theresaragan.com/ who has sold 52,522 copies of her book Abducted since she uploaded it four months ago. 37,178 copies of this book were sold during September alone. The book is still ranked within the top 50 books in the entire Kindle Store—so her sales on this book will just go up from the current tally. But Abducted is just one of her books. She has sold over 96,000 books across the board since she started self-publishing in March.
For anyone who is interested, go through the Kindle Store’s top 100 bestsellers and look at how many of these books were self published. Or go through the top 100 romantic suspense, or the top 100 young adult, or any category you choose and see how many were self-published. Then check out their Amazon best sellers ranking and compare that ranking to this chart. http://www.theresaragan.com/p/sale-ranking-chart.html This will give you an idea of many books a day these authors are selling. Any book selling beneath $2.99 the author gets a 30% royalty. Above $2.99 they get a 70% royalty on it. Yeah, it won’t take long to see that there are a lot of authors making a lot of money on their self-published books.
No, not every author will sell well. It depends on genre, quality of the work, professionalism of the work. And often times sheer luck. But really, this is no different than traditional publishing.
As for me, I self-published my debut paranormal romantic suspense one month ago yesterday. So far it’s exceeded my expectations and I can honestly say self-publishing it was the smart choice for me.
Love it!
Dang it! There goes my dream of becoming famous by putting my rockin’ elementary music version of “Five Little Monkeys” on You Tube…you ain’t seen nothin’ ’til you’ve seen me bopping around with five year olds…
**sigh**
I had considered self-publishing, then gave up the idea hoping instead for a traditional publisher. I am about to self-publish my novella to give away as an enticement to subscribe to my blog (that I haven’t been writing much on in favor of my work in progress).
BUT…
If enough people believe like Jim, they’ll keep trying the self-pub route, freeing up one more sliver of an opportunity for me to get a traditional publishing contract.
So who’s more desperate, Jim for saying there’s a chance, or me for saying thanks to people thinking like Jim, there’s a chance?
If we only published E books then we wouldn’t need agents…hmmm….hehe just a little struggling author humor.
Made me smile.
(Also made me want to self-publish an ebook on a pop group I discovered on YouTube.)
=D
We create our own odds when we put words to paper. Numbers be what they may, they can be the truth, or a lie, whatever we choose. The only guarantee is that by not writing, we have no chance. The rest of it is up to us.
When we don’t try, we don’t even get the one in a zillion chance. And when we try, we try not in order to get rich or famous, but in order to answer our call to put pen to paper.
Coach Theresa
I actually found my literary agent thanks to YouTube!
The chances are much better, as Aamanda Hocking demonstrated. Her website showed the blueprint to her success and every auhtor or e-book can follow it. Most will no reach her level of success, but might see modest success. Her hard work and many many hours of devotion paid off. You can follow her and do it too.
Lloyd: I’ll bet you twenty bucks I can get you gambling before the end of the day!
Harry: No way!
Lloyd: I’ll give you three to one odds.
Harry: No.
Lloyd: Five to one.
Harry: No.
Lloyd: Ten to one?
Harry: You’re on!
Lloyd: I’m gonna get ya!
Harry: Nuh uh!
Lloyd: I don’t know how, but I’m gonna get ya
The Flying fickle finger of fate.
Probably not the best strategies. Oh, Dumb and Dumber, how I’ve missed you.
Seriously?? You know who speaks me? Steve Jobs. Never let anybody silence the voice inside of you! It took the author of “The Help,” sixty times. I know how hard it is and I don’t care, a little is better than none.
Someone once told me that 5% of all books written publish traditionally. The odds did not look good, but I responded by saying, “And I’m going to be in that 5%.”
Guess what? I AM!
If you believe enough in your work, the odds have nothing on you!
If the odda of becoming a famous author by only publishing ebooks are a zillion to one, how come we ALL know famous authors who only publish ebooks?
What are the odds of becoming a famous author via an agent and trad publisher? What are the odds of even getting an agent, let alone being published?
Given 90% of trad books that have managed both, with all the professional resources of a major publisher, then fail abysmally (ie sell less than a thousand copies, don’t earn out their advance and are never heard of again) I’d say the success rate for self-published ebooks is far, far higher.
I guess it’s like looking for a job. You make it your business to find the one. If you have to treat looking for a job a forty hour work week, than that’s what you do to find that one. You only need one.
Also, setting out to write may be about others reading your stuff, but I have found that I reread my own, over and over. It has helped me make sense of life, my heart bleeding through the page.
It’s been said that a picture is worth a thousand words, so three pictures would be three thousand, but using movie quotes to entertain and concisely make a point…is priceless.
And what are the odds that an agent/publisher is going to find the book that makes them rich and famous? How many publishers turned down J K Rowling and are probably kicking themselves for it? There are some wonderful authors out there that are continually turned down because the agent or publisher thinks they aren’t the one that will take them to further heights! To be judged and turned down all the time and to keep submitting their books takes a lot of courage. The bottom line is how well you are marketing your own books. That is how Amanda Hocking did it and her writing is not what I would call even good. Just because you get published doesn’t mean you will sell your books, that’s up to you whether it’s ebooks or published by a big name company. It’s up to you now matter what! So why spend the money to have an agent or publisher and lose money from your profits to pay them when you have to do it all yourself anyway?
Absolutely there’s a chance, though I doubt that the odds are quite as large as a zillion to one. A beeelion to one, perhaps? In any event, nearly all of those who are famous now made it against heavy odds. If they could, why not me?
I love it! Even one zillion to one is still one chance.
Saw a billboard with Kermit the Frog’s pic that read: “Eats flies. Dates a pig. Hollywood star. Follow your dream.”
lol. Love it
I truly understand that traditional publishers and agents are just seething at this new e-publishing industry.
However I am also one to believe in the slimmest of chances. I have self published for a number of reasons when I am sure I could have went either way.
Its great to be realistic, but its the idealists and futurists who have made it big and some traditional publishers are learning to scout out those independent writers and they have found gems int he process.
Very uplifting post!
If there’s one chance, take it. In fact, evaluate every opportunity and take every legitimate chance you get.
I don’t write to become rich and famous, but if that comes along with the process, I suppose I’ll have to learn how to deal with that.
; )
I think it’s really telling how some people read this post as discouraging, assuming I’m saying “You don’t have a chance.”
Others saw the positive, taking “So you’re saying there’s a chance” to mean that I’m saying… there’s a chance!
Still others took it simply as the humor it was meant to be. I love “Dumb and Dumber” and that’s my favorite line of the movie, and this was the first time I figured out a way to use it in a blog post.
I think I love the quote because I’m the champion of the underdog, the defender of “the zillion to one chance,” the one who doesn’t care about “odds” but simply tries to get good books out there.
Cheers! Read it on my phone last night at work and it made me smile–love it even more with the pictures.
Sense of humor–intact
Loved this post. Made me laugh, We writers are such optimists when it comes to our dreams.
My attitude is–it never hurts to try. If it works, great. If not, at least you tried.
Ha! I loved this! The Dumb and Dumber quote was perfect
With enough K-Y and a pair of vice-grips… anything is possible!
I’m with Jim Carrey in the movie “Dumb & Dumber”:
“…So you’re sayin’ there’s a chance.”
Not just for epublishing but for publishing at all.
Nothing ventured nothing gained.